Note: This version of the model does not include vaccinations. As of 2/25/2021 the percentages of the Los Angeles County population that have received vaccines are:
Probability of hospitalization given infection, \(\alpha(t)\)
Probability of ICU admission given hospitalization, \(\kappa(t)\)
Probability of death given ICU admission, \(\delta(t)\)
Summarizes the epidemic model fit with COVID-19 data for LAC from March 1 through 2021-03-01 for all disease states across multiple views: New cases, representing new daily incidence; the current number in a compartment at a specific date, relevant for understanding current prevalence rates and comparing with healthcare capacity limitations; and cumulative counts until a specific date. Observed data for available compartments with cases attributable to nursing home residents removed, are plotted as black dots. The figure demonstrates that good model fits are achieved in all compartments across time.
Projections under the assumption of the infectious rate as of 2021-03-02
This plot shows the time-varying Effective Reproductive Number R(t). This accounts for the fraction of the population that is assumed to be immune to reinfection through infection-acquired immunity. It does not account for the fraction of the population that has been vaccinated, although this is currently very small and would not make a sizeable impact.