Note: This version of the model does not include vaccinations. As of 2/25/2021 the percentages of the Los Angeles County population that have received vaccines are:

  • 6% 1st and 2nd doses
  • 13.6% 1st dose only



Numbers infected

  • New = new daily incidence
  • Current = current census in compartment
  • Cumulative = running total over time
  • Black dots depict COVID-19 data

New observed infections (with data)

Current estimated total infections

Current observed infections

Current observed and total infections (together)

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Numbers of Hospitalizations, ICU admissions, Deaths

  • New = new daily incidence
  • Current = current census in compartment
  • Cumulative = running total over time
  • Black dots depict COVID-19 data
  • Dotted black line marks healthcare capacity limits

New deaths

Current in hospital

Current in ICU

Current hospitalizations, ventilations, and new deaths

Probabilities of severe illness

  • Probability of hospitalization given infection, \(\alpha(t)\)

  • Probability of ICU admission given hospitalization, \(\kappa(t)\)

  • Probability of death given ICU admission, \(\delta(t)\)

Model fits

Summarizes the epidemic model fit with COVID-19 data for LAC from March 1 through 2021-03-01 for all disease states across multiple views: New cases, representing new daily incidence; the current number in a compartment at a specific date, relevant for understanding current prevalence rates and comparing with healthcare capacity limitations; and cumulative counts until a specific date. Observed data for available compartments with cases attributable to nursing home residents removed, are plotted as black dots. The figure demonstrates that good model fits are achieved in all compartments across time.

  • New = new daily incidence
  • Current = current census in compartment
  • Cumulative = running total over time
  • Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed
  • The dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits

Model fits through 2021-03-02

Model projections through 2021-03-12

Projections under the assumption of the infectious rate as of 2021-03-02

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Estimated epidemic parameters

Reproductive Number, \(R(t)\)

This plot shows the time-varying Effective Reproductive Number R(t). This accounts for the fraction of the population that is assumed to be immune to reinfection through infection-acquired immunity. It does not account for the fraction of the population that has been vaccinated, although this is currently very small and would not make a sizeable impact.